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Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:30

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Charlotte

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.0%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-18.9%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.2%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 64.9% 1.54 -15.8%

Draw 22.0% 20.4% 4.90 +4.7%

Away win 23.3% 21.5% 4.65 +5.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 70.4% 1.42 -9.7%

Over 3.5 40.6% 47.6% 2.10 -14.7%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Fire2.2

Charlotte1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.88

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Fire (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -15.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +4.7%

Charlotte (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Fire face Charlotte in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Fire a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Charlotte 23%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Chicago Fire and 1.1 for Charlotte (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Fire are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.00 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.7%.

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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