Today / USA - MLS / Minnesota United FC vs San Diego

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:30

Minnesota United FC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Diego

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.8%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 50.8% 1.97 -9.8%

Draw 28.2% 25.6% 3.90 +6.0%

Away win 26.0% 30.8% 3.25 -9.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 66.7% 1.50 -24.6%

Over 3.5 28.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

BTTS 51.5% 69.0% 1.45 -25.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 59.9% 1.67 -24.2%

Away O1.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.5%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minnesota United FC1.4

San Diego1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MINNESOTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.25

SAN DIEGO · PPG 0.71

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Minnesota United FC (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -9.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.0%

San Diego (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minnesota United FC face San Diego in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minnesota United FC a 46% chance, the draw 28% and San Diego 26%, so Minnesota United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Minnesota United FC and 1.0 for San Diego (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minnesota United FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.71 for San Diego.

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions