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Colorado Rapids vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:30

Colorado Rapids

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Austin

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.3%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.5%1-16.3%1-23.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.1%2-18.8%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-111.2%4+-25.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 57.8% 1.73 +11.9%

Draw 16.8% 26.0% 3.85 -21.2%

Away win 18.5% 23.3% 4.30 -12.3%

Over 2.5 67.0% 61.7% 1.62 +8.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 39.2% 2.55 +14.2%

BTTS 59.5% 63.7% 1.57 -6.6%

Home O1.5 65.4% 60.6% 1.65 +7.9%

Away O1.5 28.3% 35.7% 2.80 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.5%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Rapids2.8

Austin1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 1.71

AUSTIN · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Rapids (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +11.9%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -21.2%

Austin (A) 18.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Rapids face Austin in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Rapids a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Austin 19%, so Colorado Rapids are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Colorado Rapids and 1.0 for Austin (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Rapids are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.33 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.6%.

Colorado Rapids vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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