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Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:30

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Houston Dynamo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.4%0-25.5%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.1%1-28.6%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 33.8% 2.96 +21.4%

Draw 23.8% 28.2% 3.55 -9.3%

Away win 35.3% 45.0% 2.22 -21.6%

Over 2.5 63.6% 60.6% 1.65 +4.9%

Over 3.5 40.5% 38.5% 2.60 +5.3%

BTTS 62.8% 65.4% 1.53 -3.9%

Home O1.5 48.2% 43.5% 2.30 +10.9%

Away O1.5 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.8%

A 35% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Kansas City1.6

Houston Dynamo1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 1.00

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Kansas City (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +21.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.3%

Houston Dynamo (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Kansas City face Houston Dynamo in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Kansas City a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Houston Dynamo 35%, so Sporting Kansas City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.7 for Houston Dynamo (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Kansas City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Houston Dynamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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