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St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:30

St. Louis City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Salt Lake

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.8%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.7%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.1%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Draw 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Away win 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 61.2% 64.5% 1.55 -5.1%

Over 3.5 37.3% 42.6% 2.35 -12.3%

BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 57.8% 1.73 -7.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City1.8

Real Salt Lake1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 2.00

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

Real Salt Lake (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City face Real Salt Lake in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Real Salt Lake 24%, so St. Louis City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Louis City and 1.1 for Real Salt Lake (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Real Salt Lake.

St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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