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Guastatoya vs Malacateco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:00

Guastatoya

PPG 1.51 · HOME

UPCOMING

Malacateco

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-17.3%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.4%1-111.0%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.3%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.2% — — —

Over 3.5 23.3% — — —

BTTS 47.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 45.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.4%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 13.8%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guastatoya1.5

Malacateco0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUASTATOYA · PPG 1.51

MALACATECO · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guastatoya (H) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Malacateco (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guastatoya face Malacateco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guastatoya a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Malacateco 21%, so Guastatoya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Guastatoya and 0.6 for Malacateco (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guastatoya are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.84 for Malacateco.

Guastatoya vs Malacateco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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