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Corpus Christi vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:30

Corpus Christi

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Greenville Triumph

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+13.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.0%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-19.8%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.2%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-14.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 52.4% 1.91 +13.3%

Draw 22.0% 29.9% 3.35 -15.8%

Away win 18.6% 28.6% 3.50 -20.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 55.7% 51.8% 1.93 +7.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 34.5% 2.90 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corpus Christi1.9

Greenville Triumph0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CORPUS CHRISTI · PPG 1.88

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corpus Christi (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.8%

Greenville Triumph (A) 18.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corpus Christi face Greenville Triumph in USA - USL League One on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corpus Christi a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Greenville Triumph 19%, so Corpus Christi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Corpus Christi and 0.7 for Greenville Triumph (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corpus Christi are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.57 for Greenville Triumph. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.6%.

Corpus Christi vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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