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Greenville Triumph vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 23:00

Greenville Triumph

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boise

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.0%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.5%1-112.0%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 15.4%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greenville Triumph1.5

Boise1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 1.43

BOISE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Greenville Triumph (H) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boise (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Greenville Triumph face Boise in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greenville Triumph a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Boise 28%, so Greenville Triumph are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Greenville Triumph and 1.3 for Boise (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greenville Triumph are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.38 for Boise.

Greenville Triumph vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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