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Monagas SC vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:00

Monagas SC

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-116.2%0-29.6%0-33.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.4%2-15.2%2-23.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.2%3-11.4%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% — — —

Draw 29.2% — — —

Away win 40.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 34.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.7%

A 41% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas SC0.8

Deportivo La Guaira1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS SC · PPG 1.57

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 1.99 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monagas SC (H) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo La Guaira (A) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas SC face Deportivo La Guaira in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas SC a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo La Guaira 41%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Monagas SC and 1.2 for Deportivo La Guaira (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas SC are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.00 for Deportivo La Guaira.

Monagas SC vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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