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Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 21:00

Portuguesa FC

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Carabobo FC

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.9%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-113.0%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.5%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 35.7% 2.80 +15.1%

Draw 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 31.6% 41.7% 2.40 -24.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 23.8% 4.20 +12.8%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 38.3% 35.1% 2.85 +9.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 39.2% 2.55 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 34.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa FC1.3

Carabobo FC1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA FC · PPG 1.80

CARABOBO FC · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa FC (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +15.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Carabobo FC (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa FC face Carabobo FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa FC a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Carabobo FC 32%, so Portuguesa FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Portuguesa FC and 1.1 for Carabobo FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa FC are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.11 for Carabobo FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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