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Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 01:00

Spokane Velocity

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fort Wayne

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.6%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-112.9%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.6%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Draw 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Away win 25.4% 27.0% 3.70 -3.6%

Over 2.5 47.4% 58.8% 1.70 -19.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 49.4% 62.5% 1.60 -21.0%

Home O1.5 38.5% 57.8% 1.73 -33.4%

Away O1.5 24.7% 36.4% 2.75 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.4%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spokane Velocity1.3

Fort Wayne0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOKANE VELOCITY · PPG 2.40

FORT WAYNE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spokane Velocity (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

Fort Wayne (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spokane Velocity face Fort Wayne in USA - USL League One on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spokane Velocity a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Fort Wayne 25%, so Spokane Velocity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Spokane Velocity and 0.9 for Fort Wayne (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spokane Velocity are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Fort Wayne.

Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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