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Alta vs Westchester SC Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 03:00

Alta

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Westchester SC

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.5%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.4%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-15.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 55.6% 1.80 +5.1%

Draw 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -11.6%

Away win 19.8% 27.8% 3.60 -17.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 64.5% 1.55 -5.9%

Over 3.5 37.5% 42.0% 2.38 -10.8%

BTTS 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 60.6% 1.65 +2.0%

Away O1.5 20.5% 40.8% 2.45 -29.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alta2.1

Westchester SC0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTA · PPG 1.70

WESTCHESTER SC · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alta (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +5.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.6%

Westchester SC (A) 19.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alta face Westchester SC in USA - USL League One on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alta a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Westchester SC 20%, so Alta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Alta and 0.9 for Westchester SC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alta are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.12 for Westchester SC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.0%.

Alta vs Westchester SC Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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