Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL

Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Club Queretaro

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tigres UANL

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.0%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 30.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Queretaro1.6

Tigres UANL1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB QUERETARO · PPG 1.14

TIGRES UANL · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Queretaro (H) 50.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tigres UANL (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Queretaro face Tigres UANL in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Queretaro a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Tigres UANL 24%, so Club Queretaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Club Queretaro and 1.1 for Tigres UANL (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Queretaro are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.04 for Tigres UANL.

Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Predictions