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Puebla U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Regular Season - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:00

Puebla U21

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guadalajara Chivas U21

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.1%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.2%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 36.4% 2.75 +37.5%

Draw 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

Away win 23.9% 44.4% 2.25 -27.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.6% 1.90 -4.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.5% 3.08 -6.6%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 40.7% 2.46 +11.7%

Away O1.5 24.4% 44.8% 2.23 -27.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla U211.5

Guadalajara Chivas U210.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA U21 · PPG 1.25

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21 · PPG 1.27

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Puebla U21 (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +37.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.1%

Guadalajara Chivas U21 (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla U21 face Guadalajara Chivas U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla U21 a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas U21 24%, so Puebla U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Puebla U21 and 0.9 for Guadalajara Chivas U21 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla U21 are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.27 for Guadalajara Chivas U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Puebla U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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