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Juarez U21 vs UNAM Pumas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Regular Season - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:00

Juarez U21

PPG 1.32 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNAM Pumas U21

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-111.1%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-17.9%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 58.8% 1.70 -31.3%

Draw 31.5% 26.3% 3.80 +19.7%

Away win 28.1% 26.3% 3.80 +4.1%

Over 2.5 41.5% 57.1% 1.75 -27.4%

Over 3.5 22.8% 35.2% 2.84 -21.1%

BTTS 48.7% 58.5% 1.71 -16.7%

Home O1.5 32.9% 56.8% 1.76 -42.1%

Away O1.5 27.7% 31.8% 3.14 -7.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juarez U211.2

UNAM Pumas U211.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAREZ U21 · PPG 1.32

UNAM PUMAS U21 · PPG 1.29

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juarez U21 (H) 40.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -31.3%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +19.7%

UNAM Pumas U21 (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juarez U21 face UNAM Pumas U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juarez U21 a 40% chance, the draw 32% and UNAM Pumas U21 28%, so Juarez U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Juarez U21 and 1.0 for UNAM Pumas U21 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juarez U21 are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.29 for UNAM Pumas U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Juarez U21 vs UNAM Pumas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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