Today / Peru - Primera División / UTC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua

UTC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

UCV Moquegua

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.5%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.0%1-111.1%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 61.3% 1.63 -11.0%

Draw 25.1% 27.4% 3.65 -5.0%

Away win 20.3% 18.2% 5.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 26.3% 3.80 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 12.8%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UTC Cajamarca1.7

UCV Moquegua0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.25

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UTC Cajamarca (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -11.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.0%

UCV Moquegua (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UTC Cajamarca face UCV Moquegua in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UTC Cajamarca a 55% chance, the draw 25% and UCV Moquegua 20%, so UTC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for UTC Cajamarca and 0.8 for UCV Moquegua (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UTC Cajamarca are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.44 for UCV Moquegua. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.6%.

UTC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions