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Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:30

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Lima

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-117.9%0-28.3%0-32.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-112.9%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.0%2-14.6%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 25.0% 4.00 +22.4%

Draw 33.3% 31.7% 3.15 +4.9%

Away win 36.1% 50.5% 1.98 -28.5%

Over 2.5 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

Over 3.5 16.7% 21.1% 4.75 -12.4%

BTTS 46.4% 48.8% 2.05 -4.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 25.0% 4.00 +33.2%

Away O1.5 26.4% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 12.8%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

D 33% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.2%

#2 0–1 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 13.8%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes Unidos0.7

Alianza Lima0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 1.78

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 1.65 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes Unidos (H) 30.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +22.4%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +4.9%

Alianza Lima (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes Unidos face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes Unidos a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Alianza Lima 36%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.9 for Alianza Lima (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes Unidos are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.00 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.2%.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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