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San Diego Wave W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:00

San Diego Wave W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.9%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-15.2%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Draw 25.1% 24.4% 4.10 +1.8%

Away win 20.3% 16.7% 6.00 +13.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 56.5% 1.77 -11.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego Wave W1.7

Seattle Reign FC W0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO WAVE W · PPG 1.50

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Diego Wave W (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.8%

Seattle Reign FC W (A) 20.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego Wave W face Seattle Reign FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego Wave W a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Seattle Reign FC W 20%, so San Diego Wave W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for San Diego Wave W and 0.8 for Seattle Reign FC W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego Wave W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Seattle Reign FC W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

San Diego Wave W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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