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Washington Spirit W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 23:00

Washington Spirit W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.2%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.0%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 64.5% 1.55 -18.2%

Draw 24.3% 25.3% 3.95 -2.4%

Away win 22.9% 20.0% 5.00 +8.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.4% 38.5% 2.60 -15.8%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Washington Spirit W1.8

Denver Summit W0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 2.17

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Washington Spirit W (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -18.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.4%

Denver Summit W (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Washington Spirit W face Denver Summit W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Washington Spirit W a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Denver Summit W 23%, so Washington Spirit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Washington Spirit W and 0.9 for Denver Summit W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Washington Spirit W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.38 for Denver Summit W.

Washington Spirit W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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