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Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:30

Penarol

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-19.3%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.5%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.4%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-13.7%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 64.1% 1.56 -24.2%

Draw 28.5% 27.0% 3.70 +3.3%

Away win 23.0% 17.9% 5.60 +17.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

Over 3.5 22.8% 29.0% 3.45 -12.8%

BTTS 48.7% 51.3% 1.95 -5.0%

Home O1.5 38.3% 56.5% 1.77 -32.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -20.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol1.3

Cerro Largo0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 1.64

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -24.2%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +3.3%

Cerro Largo (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Cerro Largo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Cerro Largo 23%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Penarol and 0.8 for Cerro Largo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.27 for Cerro Largo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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