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Deportivo Maldonado vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juventud

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+22.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.7%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-18.5%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.4%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-17.3%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.5% 54.9% 1.82 +10.1%

Draw 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -17.8%

Away win 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

Over 2.5 61.3% 50.0% 2.00 +22.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 29.0% 3.45 +35.9%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 60.1% 51.3% 1.95 +17.2%

Away O1.5 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -20.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maldonado2.3

Juventud0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 2.50

JUVENTUD · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maldonado (H) 60.5%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV +10.1%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.8%

Juventud (A) 18.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maldonado face Juventud in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maldonado a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Juventud 19%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.9 for Juventud (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maldonado are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.90 for Juventud. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.6%.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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