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Cerro vs Racing Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 6 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Cerro

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Montevideo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-119.0%0-212.8%0-35.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.7%2-13.6%2-22.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 22.2% 4.50 +2.1%

Draw 30.0% 31.7% 3.15 -5.5%

Away win 47.0% 54.9% 1.82 -14.5%

Over 2.5 39.3% 40.8% 2.45 -3.7%

Over 3.5 19.7% 21.1% 4.75 -3.9%

BTTS 46.4% 47.6% 2.10 -2.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 22.2% 4.50 +49.9%

Away O1.5 41.9% 45.5% 2.20 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob46.4%

A 47% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.0%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–2 12.8%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro0.6

Racing Montevideo1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO · PPG 1.20

RACING MONTEVIDEO · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerro (H) 23.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +2.1%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.5%

Racing Montevideo (A) 47.0%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro face Racing Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro a 23% chance, the draw 30% and Racing Montevideo 47%, so Racing Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Cerro and 1.3 for Racing Montevideo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Racing Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +49.9%.

Cerro vs Racing Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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