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Albion FC vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

Albion FC

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Danubio

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.2%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-110.9%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 48.1% 2.08 +11.5%

Draw 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Away win 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 22.2% 4.50 +18.0%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 49.4% 41.7% 2.40 +18.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 28.2% 3.55 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -20.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albion FC1.7

Danubio0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBION FC · PPG 1.27

DANUBIO · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Albion FC (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +11.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Danubio (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albion FC face Danubio in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albion FC a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Danubio 22%, so Albion FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Albion FC and 0.8 for Danubio (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albion FC are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.82 for Danubio. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +30.2%.

Albion FC vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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