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Atletico Torque vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 22:00

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wanderers

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.4%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-111.8%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 51.5% 1.94 -9.8%

Draw 25.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.8%

Away win 28.6% 27.4% 3.65 +2.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 26.7% 3.75 +20.8%

BTTS 55.4% 54.6% 1.83 +1.4%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 29.4% 3.40 +24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -20.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Torque1.6

Wanderers1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.60

WANDERERS · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Torque (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.8%

Wanderers (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Torque face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Torque a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Wanderers 29%, so Atletico Torque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atletico Torque and 1.1 for Wanderers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Torque are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.30 for Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.1%.

Atletico Torque vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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