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Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Emelec

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-110.1%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.2%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 42.6% 2.35 +9.8%

Draw 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Away win 25.1% 31.7% 3.15 -12.6%

Over 2.5 46.8% 42.6% 2.35 +10.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 22.2% 4.50 +11.3%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 38.5% 38.5% 2.60 +0.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 31.3% 3.20 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cuenca1.3

Emelec0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.20

EMELEC · PPG 0.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cuenca (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +9.8%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Emelec (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cuenca face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cuenca a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Emelec 25%, so Deportivo Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Cuenca and 0.8 for Emelec (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cuenca are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.90 for Emelec. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.7%.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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