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Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 00:15

Barcelona SC

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-110.4%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-111.9%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-16.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.6%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 46.7% 2.14 +4.4%

Draw 31.3% 30.8% 3.25 +1.7%

Away win 19.9% 29.4% 3.40 -19.4%

Over 2.5 35.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.0%

Over 3.5 17.8% 23.8% 4.20 -15.1%

BTTS 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Home O1.5 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Away O1.5 19.1% 30.8% 3.25 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.7%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona SC1.1

LDU de Quito0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA SC · PPG 2.40

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona SC (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +4.4%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.7%

LDU de Quito (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona SC face LDU de Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona SC a 49% chance, the draw 31% and LDU de Quito 20%, so Barcelona SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Barcelona SC and 0.6 for LDU de Quito (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona SC are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.27 for LDU de Quito.

Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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