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Cumbayá vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 20:30

Cumbayá

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.5%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-111.6%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.0%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cumbayá1.5

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CUMBAYÁ · PPG 1.56

DEPORTIVO CUENCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cumbayá (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cumbayá face Deportivo Cuenca Juniors in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cumbayá a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22%, so Cumbayá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cumbayá and 0.7 for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cumbayá are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors.

Cumbayá vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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