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Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Temuco Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:30

Deportes Iquique

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.1%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.0%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 40.0% 2.50 0.0%

Draw 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Away win 33.9% 37.0% 2.70 -8.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.0% 1.96 +4.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 31.3% 3.20 +3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Home O1.5 38.5% 42.0% 2.38 -8.4%

Away O1.5 36.9% 39.2% 2.55 -5.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Iquique1.4

Deportes Temuco1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 1.38

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Iquique (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV 0.0%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

Deportes Temuco (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Iquique face Deportes Temuco in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Iquique a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Deportes Temuco 34%, so Deportes Iquique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportes Iquique and 1.2 for Deportes Temuco (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Deportes Temuco. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Temuco Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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