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Santiago Wanderers vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:30

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union San Felipe

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.44 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.4%1-14.7%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-17.4%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-018.8%4+-113.7%4+-25.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.9% — — —

Draw 17.5% — — —

Away win 9.6% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 49.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 4–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago Wanderers3.2

Union San Felipe0.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.71

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.44 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Santiago Wanderers (H) 72.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union San Felipe (A) 9.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago Wanderers face Union San Felipe in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago Wanderers a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Union San Felipe 10%, so Santiago Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Santiago Wanderers and 0.7 for Union San Felipe (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago Wanderers are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.50 for Union San Felipe.

Santiago Wanderers vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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