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Curico Unido vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 19:00

Curico Unido

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Luis

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.5%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 52.3% — — —

Over 3.5 30.4% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.5

San Luis1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.57

SAN LUIS · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Luis (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face San Luis in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 46% chance, the draw 26% and San Luis 28%, so Curico Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Curico Unido and 1.1 for San Luis (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.43 for San Luis.

Curico Unido vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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