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Independ. Rivadavia vs Huracan Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 22:00

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huracan

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 33.3% — a clear edge.

+60.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.1%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-111.6%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 44.4% 2.25 +18.4%

Draw 24.3% 34.2% 2.92 -17.4%

Away win 23.1% 28.2% 3.55 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 33.3% 3.00 +60.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 16.0% 6.25 +101.3%

BTTS 52.6% 42.0% 2.38 +25.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 34.5% 2.90 +43.3%

Away O1.5 24.4% 23.1% 4.33 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -26.1%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independ. Rivadavia1.6

Huracan0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 1.90

HURACAN · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independ. Rivadavia (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +18.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -17.4%

Huracan (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independ. Rivadavia face Huracan in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independ. Rivadavia a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Huracan 23%, so Independ. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Independ. Rivadavia and 0.9 for Huracan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independ. Rivadavia are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.20 for Huracan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +101.3%.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Huracan Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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