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Deportivo Pasto vs Águilas Doradas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.0%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-110.8%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-15.9%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 54.3% 1.84 -0.6%

Draw 24.1% 29.9% 3.35 -11.6%

Away win 21.9% 22.7% 4.40 -2.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 45.5% 2.20 +17.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 23.8% 4.20 +35.2%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pasto1.8

Águilas Doradas0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.82

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pasto (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -0.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.6%

Águilas Doradas (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto face Águilas Doradas in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pasto a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Águilas Doradas 22%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.9 for Águilas Doradas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pasto are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.33 for Águilas Doradas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Deportivo Pasto vs Águilas Doradas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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