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Once Caldas vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 01:15

Once Caldas

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cucuta

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.1%1-16.0%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.2%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-111.6%4+-24.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 70.4% 1.42 -4.0%

Draw 17.5% 23.8% 4.20 -15.9%

Away win 14.9% 13.2% 7.60 +7.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 54.6% 1.83 +16.6%

Over 3.5 42.1% 32.3% 3.10 +30.5%

BTTS 53.2% 50.0% 2.00 +6.4%

Home O1.5 74.4% 63.7% 1.57 +16.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 19.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.2%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Once Caldas2.9

Cucuta0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.91

CUCUTA · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.01 for Home, form 1.91 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Once Caldas (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -4.0%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -15.9%

Cucuta (A) 14.9%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Once Caldas face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Once Caldas a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Cucuta 15%, so Once Caldas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Once Caldas and 0.8 for Cucuta (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Once Caldas are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.40 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.2%.

Once Caldas vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions