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Águilas Doradas vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:05

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santa Fe

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.7%0-25.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.1%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-18.1%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 36.8% 2.72 +9.6%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 33.1% 36.8% 2.72 -10.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 41.7% 2.40 +20.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 36.8% 33.9% 2.95 +8.6%

Away O1.5 36.4% 33.9% 2.95 +7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Águilas Doradas1.2

Santa Fe1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.40

SANTA FE · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Águilas Doradas (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +9.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Santa Fe (A) 33.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Águilas Doradas face Santa Fe in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águilas Doradas a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Santa Fe 33%, so Águilas Doradas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Águilas Doradas and 1.1 for Santa Fe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águilas Doradas are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%.

Águilas Doradas vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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