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Deportes Tolima vs Junior Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 01:15

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Junior

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-17.5%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.8%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 48.1% 2.08 +3.8%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.6% 26.7% 3.75 +4.3%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 30.8% 3.25 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 18.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima1.6

Junior0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.17

JUNIOR · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +3.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Junior (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Junior in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Junior 24%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Junior (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Junior. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.7%.

Deportes Tolima vs Junior Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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