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Bucaramanga vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 01:00

Bucaramanga

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Llaneros

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-16.9%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.7%1-110.4%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-17.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.4%3-13.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 64.9% 1.54 -13.5%

Draw 24.9% 26.0% 3.85 -2.5%

Away win 18.9% 16.0% 6.25 +10.9%

Over 2.5 45.7% 50.0% 2.00 -8.6%

Over 3.5 27.4% 27.4% 3.65 +0.0%

BTTS 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.1% 1.75 -20.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.5%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 13.1%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucaramanga1.5

Llaneros0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCARAMANGA · PPG 1.78

LLANEROS · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bucaramanga (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -13.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.5%

Llaneros (A) 18.9%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucaramanga face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucaramanga a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Llaneros 19%, so Bucaramanga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bucaramanga and 0.5 for Llaneros (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucaramanga are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.20 for Llaneros. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Bucaramanga vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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