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Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:10

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Cali

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.4%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 51.5% 1.94 -4.2%

Draw 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Away win 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.0% 3.85 +6.8%

BTTS 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellin1.5

Deportivo Cali0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.55

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellin (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -4.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

Deportivo Cali (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellin face Deportivo Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellin a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Cali 24%, so Independiente Medellin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Independiente Medellin and 0.9 for Deportivo Cali (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellin are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.89 for Deportivo Cali. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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