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Alianza Valledupar vs Deportes Tolima Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:05

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Tolima

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-114.8%0-27.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.0%2-16.1%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 36.2% 2.76 -0.4%

Draw 30.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Away win 33.4% 38.8% 2.58 -13.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 22.8% 23.8% 4.20 -2.5%

BTTS 48.7% 52.6% 1.90 -7.5%

Home O1.5 32.6% 35.7% 2.80 -8.7%

Away O1.5 30.6% 37.7% 2.65 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Valledupar0.9

Deportes Tolima1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 1.20

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Valledupar (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -0.4%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Deportes Tolima (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Valledupar face Deportes Tolima in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Valledupar a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Deportes Tolima 33%, so Alianza Valledupar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.0 for Deportes Tolima (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Valledupar are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportes Tolima. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportes Tolima Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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