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Alianza Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 23:10

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fortaleza FC

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-110.6%0-24.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-113.1%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-18.1%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 47.2% 2.12 -2.9%

Draw 29.0% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Away win 25.3% 27.4% 3.65 -4.6%

Over 2.5 43.6% 42.0% 2.38 +3.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 22.2% 4.50 +2.1%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 36.8% 41.7% 2.40 -11.7%

Away O1.5 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 18.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Valledupar1.2

Fortaleza FC0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 1.22

FORTALEZA FC · PPG 0.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Valledupar (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -2.9%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Fortaleza FC (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Valledupar face Fortaleza FC in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Valledupar a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Fortaleza FC 25%, so Alianza Valledupar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Alianza Valledupar and 0.9 for Fortaleza FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Valledupar are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.44 for Fortaleza FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Alianza Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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