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Unipomezia vs ACD Maceratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Unipomezia

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

ACD Maceratese

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.2%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.8%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.6%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.8% — — —

BTTS 51.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unipomezia1.6

ACD Maceratese1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIPOMEZIA · PPG 1.33

ACD MACERATESE · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Unipomezia (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ACD Maceratese (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Unipomezia face ACD Maceratese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unipomezia a 51% chance, the draw 25% and ACD Maceratese 24%, so Unipomezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Unipomezia and 1.0 for ACD Maceratese (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unipomezia are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.67 for ACD Maceratese. This match finished 3-0.

Unipomezia vs ACD Maceratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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