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FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Regular Season - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

FC Thun

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

BSC Young Boys

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.9%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.9%1-15.3%1-24.8%1-32.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.2%2-26.5%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.5%3-25.9%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-18.6%4+-27.8%4+-34.7%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 40.0% 2.50 +32.5%

Draw 21.4% 26.0% 3.85 -10.6%

Away win 25.6% 40.8% 2.45 -22.4%

Over 2.5 72.9% 71.4% 1.40 +2.1%

Over 3.5 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

BTTS 70.3% 74.1% 1.35 -5.1%

Home O1.5 64.0% 56.5% 1.77 +13.3%

Away O1.5 48.8% 56.5% 1.77 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob70.3%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 6.5%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 1–1 5.3%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Thun2.7

BSC Young Boys1.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC THUN · PPG 1.82

BSC YOUNG BOYS · PPG 1.31

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Thun (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +32.5%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.6%

BSC Young Boys (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Thun face BSC Young Boys in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Thun a 53% chance, the draw 21% and BSC Young Boys 26%, so FC Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for FC Thun and 1.8 for BSC Young Boys (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Thun are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.31 for BSC Young Boys. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +28.4%.

FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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