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Winterthur vs Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Winterthur

PPG 0.78 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzern

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-14.1%0-25.5%0-34.9%0-4+6.4%1 1-02.3%1-16.1%1-28.2%1-37.4%1-4+9.6%2 2-01.7%2-14.6%2-26.1%2-35.5%2-4+7.2%3 3-00.8%3-12.3%3-23.1%3-32.7%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.2%4+-21.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 29.9% 3.35 -16.0%

Draw 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 57.3% 52.6% 1.90 +8.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 60.3% 54.6% 1.83 +10.3%

BTTS 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.0%

A 57% / xG 1.5-2.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.2%

#2 1–3 7.4%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Winterthur1.5

Luzern2.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WINTERTHUR · PPG 0.78

LUZERN · PPG 1.56

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Winterthur (H) 21.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -16.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

Luzern (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Winterthur face Luzern in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Winterthur a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Luzern 57%, so Luzern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Winterthur and 2.7 for Luzern (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Winterthur are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.56 for Luzern. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Winterthur vs Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Super League Predictions