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Lugano vs FC Basel Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group - 38 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:30

Lugano

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Basel

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.6%1-111.0%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Draw 24.9% 24.4% 4.10 +1.3%

Away win 24.0% 27.0% 3.70 -6.7%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Over 3.5 33.3% 47.6% 2.10 -30.1%

BTTS 56.1% 70.4% 1.42 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.1%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano1.8

FC Basel1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO · PPG 2.00

FC BASEL · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Lugano (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -8.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.3%

FC Basel (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano face FC Basel in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano a 51% chance, the draw 25% and FC Basel 24%, so Lugano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lugano and 1.2 for FC Basel (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for FC Basel. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Lugano vs FC Basel Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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