Today / Switzerland - Super League / FC Basel vs St. Gallen

FC Basel vs St. Gallen Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group · Matchday 37 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 14:30

FC Basel

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St. Gallen

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.0%0-26.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.1%1-111.2%1-28.9%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-17.8%2-26.2%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Draw 25.8% 26.0% 3.85 -0.4%

Away win 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Over 2.5 59.4% 70.4% 1.42 -15.7%

Over 3.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

BTTS 58.6% 73.5% 1.36 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.6%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Basel1.4

St. Gallen1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BASEL · PPG 1.67

ST. GALLEN · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

FC Basel (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.4%

St. Gallen (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Basel face St. Gallen in Switzerland - Super League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Basel a 36% chance, the draw 26% and St. Gallen 38%, so St. Gallen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Basel and 1.6 for St. Gallen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Basel are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.89 for St. Gallen. This match finished 1-3.

FC Basel vs St. Gallen Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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