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FC Zurich vs Servette Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

FC Zurich

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Servette

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.8%0-24.9%0-33.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.0%1-18.2%1-28.4%1-35.7%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-17.0%2-27.1%2-34.9%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.0%3-14.0%3-24.1%3-32.8%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 32.3% 3.10 +8.8%

Draw 23.7% 26.3% 3.80 -6.0%

Away win 41.2% 48.8% 2.05 -15.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 51.6% 43.5% 2.30 +18.7%

BTTS 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 41% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Zurich1.7

Servette2.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ZURICH · PPG 1.22

SERVETTE · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

FC Zurich (H) 35.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.0%

Servette (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Zurich face Servette in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Zurich a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Servette 41%, so Servette are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Zurich and 2.0 for Servette (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Zurich are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.22 for Servette. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 0-2.

FC Zurich vs Servette Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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