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Sion vs Lugano Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group · Matchday 37 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 14:30

Sion

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lugano

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.7%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-112.9%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Draw 30.2% 28.2% 3.55 +7.2%

Away win 25.3% 33.3% 3.00 -14.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 57.8% 1.73 -20.8%

Over 3.5 19.2% 35.7% 2.80 -27.7%

BTTS 50.6% 63.7% 1.57 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.6%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sion1.3

Lugano0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SION · PPG 1.83

LUGANO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sion (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -2.3%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +7.2%

Lugano (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sion face Lugano in Switzerland - Super League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sion a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Lugano 25%, so Sion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sion and 0.9 for Lugano (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sion are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.50 for Lugano. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Sion vs Lugano Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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