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St. Gallen vs Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group - 38 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:30

St. Gallen

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Thun

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.4%0-24.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.8%1-19.5%1-27.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.1%3-15.0%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 57.8% 1.73 -27.0%

Draw 23.0% 23.1% 4.33 -0.3%

Away win 34.9% 26.0% 3.85 +34.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 74.1% 1.35 -13.7%

Over 3.5 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

BTTS 61.0% 74.1% 1.35 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.0%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Gallen1.8

Thun1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. GALLEN · PPG 1.78

THUN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.78), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

St. Gallen (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -27.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -0.3%

Thun (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Gallen face Thun in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Gallen a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Thun 35%, so St. Gallen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Gallen and 1.6 for Thun (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Gallen are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.00 for Thun. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 1-1.

St. Gallen vs Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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