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Termoli Calcio vs Notaresco Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Termoli Calcio

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Notaresco

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.6%0-118.7%0-27.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-112.2%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.0%2-14.0%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% — — —

Draw 37.5% — — —

Away win 35.4% — — —

Over 2.5 17.7% — — —

Over 3.5 5.9% — — —

BTTS 26.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob26.2%

D 38% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 18% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.6%

#2 0–1 18.7%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 1–1 12.2%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Termoli Calcio0.7

Notaresco0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 17.7% · O3.5 PROB 5.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TERMOLI CALCIO · PPG 1.00

NOTARESCO · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Termoli Calcio (H) 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Notaresco (A) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Termoli Calcio face Notaresco in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Termoli Calcio a 27% chance, the draw 38% and Notaresco 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Termoli Calcio and 0.8 for Notaresco (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 18% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Termoli Calcio are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.73 for Notaresco. This match finished 1-2.

Termoli Calcio vs Notaresco Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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