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San Martin S.J. vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-19.1%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.4%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.2%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 59.5% 1.68 -15.2%

Draw 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Away win 21.1% 16.7% 6.00 +16.0%

Over 2.5 37.3% 32.3% 3.10 +15.6%

Over 3.5 18.6% 14.3% 7.00 +18.1%

BTTS 45.4% 37.0% 2.70 +22.6%

Home O1.5 34.7% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 12.5% 8.00 +23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.5%

#2 0–0 16.3%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin S.J.1.3

Atletico DE Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.67

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martin S.J. (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -15.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Atletico DE Rafaela (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin S.J. face Atletico DE Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin S.J. a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico DE Rafaela 21%, so San Martin S.J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Martin S.J. and 0.6 for Atletico DE Rafaela (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin S.J. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.64 for Atletico DE Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.8%.

San Martin S.J. vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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