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Atlanta vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 23:00

Atlanta

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Almagro

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-14.5%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.5%1-18.3%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.2%2-17.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.6%3-14.8%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-13.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% 62.5% 1.60 +8.6%

Draw 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

Away win 9.6% 16.0% 6.25 -24.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 38.2% 2.62 +22.6%

Over 3.5 28.2% 18.2% 5.50 +33.1%

BTTS 46.4% 40.8% 2.45 +13.7%

Home O1.5 55.7% 47.6% 2.10 +17.0%

Away O1.5 15.4% 16.7% 6.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 181 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 68% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.5%

#2 2–0 17.2%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 3–0 10.6%

#5 1–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta1.9

Almagro0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA · PPG 2.09

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta (H) 67.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +8.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.1%

Almagro (A) 9.6%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Almagro 10%, so Atlanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Atlanta and 0.5 for Almagro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.60 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.1%.

Atlanta vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions